The ecological transition raises multiple questions studied in axis 1 (sectoral policies): which technology or industrial organization to foster, which sectoral policies to design and implement… It also challenges the integration and coherence of all these sectoral policies, and questions the interaction between purely economic considerations and more ethical or political considerations.
This axis aims to investigate these cross-sectoral topics, to study the energy transition not in an analytical way, by taking care of the components one by one, but in a systemic way, by considering the system of relationships between these components.
The objectives of this axis are:
The research program is for the moment more oriented toward macro-economic modelling but it will progressively broaden during the second stage of the Chair.
The axis currently evolves around two core topics:
Coordination: Antonin Pottier (EHESS)
Researchers : Emmanuel Bovari (DGT), Emmanuel Combet (Ademe), Victor Court (IFP School) Gaël Giraud (CNRS), Jacques Mazier (Université Paris 13), Florent McIsaac (Banque Mondiale), Adrien Nguyen-Huu (Université Montpellier)
Doctoral students : Edouard Dossetto (Université Panthéon-Sorbonne), Hadrien Lantremange (Université Panthéon-Sorbonne).
An econometric SFC model of the French economy is presented. The structure of the model is analogous to that of already existing national-level SFC models. The dynamic
simulations on the past over the period 1996-2019 provide acceptable results. In a second part the effects of unconventional monetary policy are evaluated such as the distribution of
helicopter money in...
In closing its economic gap with emerging markets, Côte d’Ivoire will face a substantial increase in electricity demand over the next three decades. This paper develops a forward-looking tool to explore electricity technology investment paths compatible with both rapidly increasing electricity demand and the Paris Agreement.
The article examines the relationship between a household's income and its carbon emissions (the carbon footprint). It is found that, generally, the carbon footprint grows less rapidly than expenditure, and confirms that the income elasticity is lower than the expenditure elasticity
We examine the interactions between growth in CO2 emissions, economic production, and energy use at the global and multi-regional levels over the period 1990–2014. Among our findings, our results suggest that policy effectiveness could be gained if a country’s climate actions were coordinated with the other geographies most affected by their consequences, providing valuable...
This paper follows Harvie and Grasselli and Maheshwari's research program in testing both Goodwin's predator–prey model and the extension proposed by van der Ploeg. The aim of this paper is to provide a guideline for the bloc estimation and the backtesting strategy that can be applied to such a class of continuous-time non-linear macroeconomic...
This article provides a panorama of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inequalities between French households. It presents in a detailed and critical manner the methodological...
This paper explores in which proportion the economy-wide rebound could erode expected energy savings from improved energy efficiency.
Achieving the energy shift requires an evolution of the structural and financial structures to develop, finance, and deploy low-carbon assets. Based on a historical and prospective approach, this PhD thesis develops four essays devoted to an analysis of the viability of the energy shift within the framework of a structural approach.
After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damage, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should not be considered to provide relevant information on potential damage in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case...
In "Why environmental management may yield no-regret pollution abatement options", Ecological Economics, 2009, Bréchet and Jouvet claim to have theoretically shown that profits maximizing firms can reduce pollution compared to laissez-faire and increase their profits. We correct multiple errors in their paper, with the conclusion that their claim no longer stands.
To what extent can worldwide carbon pricing foster the transition towards a low-carbon economy and mitigate the effects of global warming? We address this question by assessing the financial impacts and macroeconomic implications of carbon pricing and public subsidies.
The article contributes to the literature on the Great Divergence by providing a review of all deep-rooted and proximate causes of economic growth.
This dissertation offers a transdisciplinary modeling approach to feed the debates raised by the long-run availability of mineral materials. It investigates the plausibility of a depletion threat posed to key metal resources within the current century.
The dynamics of copper production is modeled with a prey–predator approach linking the evolution of reserves to that of industrial wealth.
the primary motivation for this dissertation is to explore the concepts of social capital, relational capabilities, subjective well-being and development, and especially the linkages between them.
This article provides a knowledge-based and energy-centred unified growth model of the transition from limited to sustained economic growth.
Using Brazil’s industrial structure and its interdependence, we evaluate the minimal changes in final demand that are needed to achieve their NDC and study the impacts that such changes could cause to the employment by industry in the country.
This paper follows van der Ploeg (1987)’s research program in testing both its extension of Goodwin (1967)’s predator-prey model and the Minsky Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) proposed by Keen (1995).
This article shows that several minimum exergy return ratios (ExRRs) can be computed in relation to different aggregate exergy conversion efficiencies.
This article analyzes the transition dynamics, what Hicks called the traverse, from one equilibrium toward another one—and the conditions for such a transfer—in a bi-sectoral economy under technological shocks.
In this article, we design a phenomenological model of the global human population dynamics by using the gross world product (GWP) as an exogenous input variable to determine the birth rate and death rates of each age group
In a stock-flow consistent macrodynamic model featuring two crucial endogenous destabilizing channels, namely debt accumulation and climate change, we perform a sensitivity analysis on four fundamental parameters of the climate and economic systems.
The purpose of this article is to reformulate a clear and in-depth state of knowledge provided by a thermo-evolutionary perspective of the economic system. It is shown that during the entire human history, energy has been central to direct the successive phases of technological change and economic development.
This paper presents a macroeconomic model of endogenous growth that takes into consideration the economic impact of climate change, the pivotal role of private debt and income distribution. The main finding is that, even though the short-run impact of climate change on economic fundamentals may seem prima facie rather minor, its long-run dynamic consequences...
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households.
Under non-exponential discounting, we develop a dynamic theory for stopping problems in continuous time. Our framework covers discount functions that induce decreasing impatience. Due to the inherent time inconsistency, we look for equilibrium stopping policies, formulated as fixed points of an operator. Under appropriate conditions, fixed-point iterations converge to equilibrium stopping policies.
How could the burden of GHG emission reduction be shared among countries? The article address this arguably basic question by purely statistical methods that do not rely on any normative judgment about the criteria according to which it should be answered.
Interconnected systems are prone to propagation of disturbances, which can undermine their resilience to external perturbations. Propagation dynamics can clearly be affected by potential time delays in the underlying processes. We investigate how such delays influence the resilience of production networks facing disruption of supply.
This thesis' goal is to study the influence of New Classical economists on macroeconomics in the 1970s, by appealing to an historiographical framework which puts at the heart the role played by the stagflation, and by confronting the results of this work to the standard narrative.
The goal of this paper is to propose and test stochastic differential equations for Goodwin’s model and one of its extension by using an estimation technique based on simulated maximum likelihood developed by Durham and Gallant (2002)
The article studies the 1978 macroeconomics conference titled “After the Phillips Curve”, where Lucas and Sargent presented their fierce attack against structural macroeconometric models, “After Keynesian Macroeconomics”. It aims at enlarging the comprehension of changes in macroeconomics in the 1970s.
We examine to which extent the Keen model (Keen 1995) is a faithful modelling of Minsky's Finance. We conclude that the Keen crisis has few Minskian flavours.
The consumption of mineral resources and energy has increased exponentially over the last 100 years. Further growth is expected until at least the middle of the 21st century. In order to meet this demand, more metals will have to be produced by 2050 than over the last 100 years, which raises questions about the...
This study uses the global climate–economy–biosphere (CoCEB) model formulated in Part 1 to investigate economic aspects of deforestation control and carbon sequestration in forests, as well as the efficiency of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies as policy measures for climate change mitigation.
We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional involving probability distortion. We study stopping decisions of naïve agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves’ behaviors.
Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world.
The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the...
Article published in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (August 2017). Abstract. In this paper we consider some elementary and fair zero-sum games...
This paper presents novel approach about ethnic polarization in a country and extends its relevance beyond social conflict and civil wars to subjective well-being (SWB) and relational capabilities construct.
This paper presents a family of multidimensional poverty indexes that measure poverty as a function of the extent and the intensity of poverty.
How do inequality and growth evolve in the long run and why? This paper analyses the interplay between household debt, growth and inequality within a monetary, stock-flow consistent framework.
Phd Thesis – Florent Mc Isaac presented publicly on the 14th of December 2016 – Université Paris 1, Panthéon Sorbonne. Ever since the stagflation...
Paper published in Economic Theory (Vol. 62, June 2016). This paper examines quantity-targeting monetary policy in a twoperiod economy with fiat money, durable goods and default.
Abstract: The stagflation phenomenon is regarded as one of the cause of the Keynesian paradigm breakdown in the 1970s. The New Classical school took...
This paper is published in Papiers de Recherche AFD, n°2015-17, Décembre. Abstract : This paper, on the one hand, goes a step closer to...
Paper published in Energy Policy – November 2015. The economic implications of oil price shocks have been extensively studied since the 1970s’. Despite this...
Abstract. The standard history of macroeconomics considers Lucas (1976)– “the Lucas Critique” –as a path-breaking innovation for the discipline. According to this view Lucas’s...
The effects of oil shocks in inflation and growth have been widely discussed in the literature, however few have focused on the impact of...
The recent literature on fossil energy has already stated that oil is not perfectly substitutable to other inputs, considering fossil fuel as a critical...
Speach from Jean-Daniel KANT (Sorbonne Université Sciences, LIP6)at the Research Seminar of the Chair Energy and Prosperity on March 15.
Speach from Francesco Ricci at the Research Seminar of the Chair Energy and Prosperity on December 21.
Speech from Daniel Bastidas and Fatma Rostom about "The use of physical and monetary data in the GEMMES modele"
Intervention de Paul Brockway (University of Leeds, UK) pour un exposé intitulé: Could energetic constraints be slowing economic growth?
France Stratégie and the Chair Energy et Prosperity are teaming up to organize a workshop on the contribution of the financial system to the energy transition and climate stabilization. The
Le séminaire "Modélisation de la transition écologique" vise à favoriser les échanges entre membres de la Chaire appartenant à des institutions différentes. Michael Ghils interviendra sur le sujet "Coupled Climate–Economics Modeling and Data Analysis: Endogenous Business Cycles and Fluctuation–Dissipation Theory"