Article published in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science – September 2017
Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world. We apply the methodology of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes and to detect whether these modes are shared by clusters of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators. An extension of the M-SSA approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization. With this novel technique, we are able to identify a common mode of business cycle activity across our sample, and thus point to the existence of a world business cycle. Superimposed on this mode, we further identify several major events that have markedly influenced the landscape of world economic activity in the postwar era.
> Download the initial working paper (March 2017)
> Buy online the published article (Sept. 2017)
Michael Ghil was a research associate to the Chair Energy and Prosperity until 2019.
Understanding the mechanisms of deforestation is necessary in order to slow or arrest its progress. To accomplish this requires rigorously estimating the demand for deforestation. We contribute to this endeavor by estimating the effect of crop prices on the demand for conversion of land from forest to agriculture in the tropics during the 21st...
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