La prochaine session du séminaire de la Chaire Énergie et Prospérité aura lieu ce vendredi 12 janvier 2018 à l’Agence Française de Développement. Nous recevrons Edouard Dosseto et Hadrien Lantremange (Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) pour un exposé intitulé :
The first part of the presentation is devoted to the integration of individual expectations to GEMMES (Cars H. Hommes, 2000). The GEMMES model undergoes the same criticisms as its foundational model (the Goodwin growth cycle model): no microfoundation, myopic expectations and parameters-dependent nature of its dynamics. The presented work attempts to solve those issues. The conduction of a Sensitivity Analysis of parameters to evaluate the robustness of the model is also investigated. We show in particular that stability of equlibrium growth paths is affected by such modifications, specifically « consistent » expectations.
In the second part, we propose an improvement of the GEMMES accounting structure by developing an ecological framework stressing the dynamics. The purpose is to integrate additional aspects of environmental pressure. We go byong the climate issue already implemented in the model and mention biodiversity loss or soil erosion as possible valuable dimensions in the model. We investigate how Biological resources (what we will call the ‘ecological assets’) could be integrated into macroeconomic modelling, following two possible approaches: ecological assets as a whole, or through separate modules.
Date : 12 Janvier 2018 de 15h à 17h
Lieu : AFD – 5 Rue Roland Barthes, 75012 Paris – Salle A06-500.
Attention : une pièce d’identité vous sera demandée à l’entrée du bâtiment et prévoyez d’être un peu en avance (du fait des contrôles de sécurité).
After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damage, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should not be considered to provide relevant information on potential damage in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case...