La prochaine session du séminaire de recherche de la Chaire Énergie et Prospérité aura lieu le vendredi 25 Janvier 2019 de 15h à 17h à l’Agence Française de Développement. Nous recevrons Michael Thornton (University of York) pour un exposé en anglais intitulé :
Econometric analysis often overlooks the fact that economic activity takes place continuously through time while the statistics related to that activity are collected only at regular intervals. We discuss recent developments in the representation and estimation of continuous time linear systems in discrete time. Taking the general case of mixed stock (observed at a single point in time) and flow (aggregated over an interval) variables, we discuss state space and exact discrete time representations, we compare likelihood evaluation based on an exact discrete time representation with that using the Kalman filter. The analysis is extended to the case where data are available at mixed frequencies, showing how the parameters of the underlying model translate into those of an equivalent model of the aggregated data. Simulation evidence suggests that these estimators have superior properties to the traditional approach of concentrating the data to a single low frequency. The techniques are applied to explore the relationship between dividends and stock prices and between the oil price and gdp.
Date : 25 janvier 2019 de 15h à 17h
Lieu : AFD – 5 Rue Roland Barthes, 75012 Paris – Salle E06 100
Attention : une pièce d’identité vous sera demandée à l’entrée du bâtiment et prévoyez d’être un peu en avance (du fait des contrôles de sécurité).
After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damage, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should not be considered to provide relevant information on potential damage in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case...