Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world. We apply the methodology of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes and to detect whether these modes are shared by clusters of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators. An extension of the M-SSA approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization. With this novel technique, we are able to identify a common mode of business cycle activity across our sample, and thus point to the existence of a world business cycle. Superimposed on this mode, we further identify several major events that have markedly influenced the landscape of world economic activity in the postwar era. These findings raise therefore questions about assessments of climate change impacts that are based purely on long-term economic growth models. A key conclusion is the importance of endogenous-dynamics effects at the interface between natural climate variability and economic fluctuations.
The goal of this article is to formulate a clear, pragmatic, and thorough report of the knowledge that a thermo-evolutionary perspective can bring to enlighten the economic growth process. It is shown that during the entire human history, energy has systematically been central to direct the successive phases of technological change and economic development.
Réalisé avec Jean-Pierre Ponssard, le Cahier de l'ILB est consacré à la mobilité durable. Il aborde des sujets aussi divers que l'impact des restriction de conduite sur la pollution urbaine, l'intérêt du véhicules à hydrogène ou l'importance des régulations pour développer l'innovation en matière de mobilité.
The workshop will promote exchanges between research scientists with decision makers on the key issue of land transportation for mitigating climate change. Call for paper open untill June 30.